The election of Shigeru Ishiba as prime minister of Japan has raised concerns about whether U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Shigeru Ishiba are compatible with each other. to focus on security matters, and Trump has demanded that the allies fulfill more of their obligations, are all factors that have put the relationship in the spotlight .
Perspectives for analyzing the relationship
Past Experience
Then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with Trump in 2016 ahead of other national leaders and established a close personal relationship through golf. Sources in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs believe that it is extremely important to realize the meeting between Shigeru Ishiba and Trump as soon as possible in order to build a relationship of trust, and hope that Shigeru Ishiba can also bring his relationship with Trump closer through golf, and even consider reappointing Abe's English interpreter, who had made a good impression on Trump, to be the interpreter for Ishiba.
Personal Character and Political Stance Influence
Shigeru Ishiba's Characteristics and Possible Influences
Born into a political family, Shigeru Ishiba has a wealth of political experience, but he has a fragile base within the LDP and has also made some controversial statements and claims, such as an Asian version of NATO and a revision of the Japan-U.S. status agreement. It has been argued that these actions of his could lead to Trump's distrust of him. In addition, the fact that he has “shot” Abe in the back may also affect Trump's attitude toward him, given Abe's close relationship with Trump.
Trump's Characteristics and Possible Impact on Relationships
Trump is a man who loves and hates and sticks to his guns. He has his own demands on his allies and has asked them to significantly increase their spending in the field of security. He has a good relationship with Shinzo Abe, who has built a good relationship through low profile pandering, and there is speculation that he may be less receptive to Shigeru Ishiba's relatively more assertive approach, and also may be reluctant to spend time on Shigeru Ishiba to build a relationship if he sees him as having a short-lived prime ministerial career .
Recent Interactions and Attitudes of Interested Parties
Interactions
Telephone exchanges
On November 7, 2024, Shigeru Ishiba and Trump spoke on the phone for about five minutes, with both sides confirming an early meeting and agreeing to take the Japan-U.S. alliance to a higher level and stage, with Ishiba describing the conversation as extremely friendly .
Arrangements for the meeting
Shigeru Ishiba expressed his desire to meet Trump as soon as possible after his election as prime minister. Japanese officials have attempted to arrange a meeting with Trump during a brief stopover in the U.S. before returning to Japan after attending the APEC forum in Peru and the subsequent G-20 summit in Brazil.
Attitudes
Mixed attitudes in Japan
Some Japanese officials are actively promoting good relations between Shigeru Ishiba and Trump, such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has stepped up its efforts to coordinate the meeting; however, the attitudes of the Japanese media and some members of the public are mixed, with some expressing skepticism about Shigeru Ishiba's statements about friendly relations with Trump, and the Japanese public expressing concern about the future of U.S.-Japanese relations in light of Trump's uncertain policies, as well as skepticism about Shigeru Ishiba's ability to be a prime minister.
U.S. wait-and-see and potential demands
While the U.S. government has expressed its expectation that Japan will maintain a diplomatic posture based on the Japan-U.S. alliance, it has some concerns about Shigeru Ishiba's minority government. Trump may demand more obligations from Japan in the area of security, as he did in his first term, and may pressure Japan through trade policy .
Summarizing
The Japanese media have expressed anxiety about whether Shigeru Ishiba and Trump are a good match for reasons ranging from the situation in Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet, Trump's attitude toward allies, and the differences in their personalities and past relationships. Recently, the two have exchanged phone calls and arranged a meeting, but Japan's domestic attitude is complicated, while the United States is on the sidelines and may have a potential request. It is difficult to determine whether the two men are compatible at this point, and further observations will be made after the meeting.
